Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for November 22, 2017

USD/CAD has been quite bearish recently after being quite corrective with the bullish gains which leads the price to surge up towards the resistance area of 1.2770-1.2860. CAD has been struggling with the gains against USD due to recent worse economic reports and upcoming USD rate hike possibility which shifted the market sentiment towards the USD side. Today, USD Core Durable Goods Orders report was published as expected at 0.4% from the previous value of 1.1%. The Unemployment Claims report was published with a decrease to 239k from the previous figure of 252k which was forecasted to be at 241k and Durable Goods Orders report was published with deficit at -1.2% from the previous value of 2.0% which was expected to be at 0.4%. Additionally, the revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is yet to be published which is expected to increase to 98.2 from the previous figure of 97.8. The revised UoM Inflation Expectation is expected to have greater value from the previous value of 2.6%. The Crude Oil Inventories report is expected to be negative at -1.4M which previously was at 1.9M. The Natural Gas Storage is expected to have greater deficit at -51B from the previous figure of -18B. Beside, the minutes of the FOMC Meeting is also going to be published today which is expected to be a positive factor for USD. Meanwhile in Canada, there are no economic reports or events today but tomorrow the Core Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 0.9% from the previous negative value of -0.7% and the Retail Sales report is also expected to show an increase to 0.9% from the previous negative value of -0.3%. As of the current scenario, USD had been quite neutral with the published report today and upcoming economic events and reports are expected to have mixed impact on the currency whereas FOMC may play a vital part which may help to regain the bullish bias of the pair. Alongside, CAD has been forecasted to have significant growth in the upcoming economic reports which is expected to strengthen the economy as well as help in the upcoming gains against USD. To sum up, the market sentiment is currently leaned towards USD as a rate hike in December is highly probable, but CAD also have good potential to gain momentum against USD in the coming days. Currently it is a matter of time which will disclose the upcoming directional movement for the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below the resistance area of 1.2770-1.2860 which is currently expected to show some bearish pressure towards 1.2450 support area in the coming days. The price has been quite volatile and corrective with the recent bullish gains which indicates an imminent strong counter move in this pair which is expected to lead to further gains on the bearish side. As the price remains below 1.2770-1.2860 resistance area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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