Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for October 5, 2017

EUR/AUD has been quite corrective and volatile in nature recently below the resistance level of 1.5070. EUR is currently quite steady with the gains, whereas AUD has failed to cope with downbeat economic reports. Today, Australia's Retail Sales report showed a decline to -0.6% from the previous value of -0.2% which was expected to show growth to 0.3% and Trade Balance report showed a proficit of 0.99B from the previous figure of 0.81B which was expected to be at 0.88B. On the EUR side, today Retail PMI report was published with an increase to 52.3 from the previous figure of 50.8 and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were quite hawkish in nature which helped the single European currency to gain over AUD in the coming days. As for the current scenario, despite a positive Trade Balance report AUD could not gain ground against EUR today. This indicates that AUD is weaker in comparison to EUR whereas EUR is expected to have an upper hand over AUD leading to further gains on the upside breaking above the resistance of 1.5070.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing a squeeze towards the resistance level of 1.5070 which is expected to break in the coming days. The price has created higher lows inside the corrective volatile structure which indicates a pre-breakout structure. So, a breakout is quite imminent in the coming days. A daily close above 1.5070 will confirm a further bullish move in this pair with a target towards 1.5225. A daily close below 1.4800 will confirm a further bearish move towards 1.4450 support area. As the price remains above 1.4800 support level, which is also the trend line support area, the bullish bias is likely to continue further.

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