Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD for August 14, 2017

EUR/USD non-volatile bullish trend is still intact which is expected to continue further in the coming days. Currently, the price is quite volatile and corrective after the positive NFP data released recently, yet USD could not recover well enough against EUR to show some more gains. The United States published the CPI report which was worse than expected at 0.1% whereas the forecast called for 0.2%. At the same time, the Core CPI was published unchanged at 0.1% which was expected to rise to 0.2%. The recent US economic reports provided boost to EUR and the market sentiment is currently well shifted to EUR side until USD comes up with any positive economic reports in the coming days. On the EUR side, today the Industrial Production report is going to be published which is expected to be negative at -0.4% which previously was at 1.3%. As it is one of the leading indicators of economic health, a negative report will lead to weakness in EUR in the medium term. On the other hand, today the United States does not have any economic events or reports to be published but tomorrow the Core Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to show a positive rise to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.2% and the Retail Sales report is expected to show a positive rise as well to 0.4% from the previous value of -0.2%. As the USD reports unfold this week, we might get some directional bias in this pair for the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 1.1820 resistance level after bouncing off the dynamic level support of 20 EMA recently. As the price is in non-volatile bullish trend which has been invincible since the break above 1.0850 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further. As the price remains above the dynamic level of 20 EMA and support area of 1.1500 to 1.1620, the bullish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards 1.2140 resistance level.

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