Global macro overview for 06/03/2017:
This week looks very busy with a lot of macroeconomic data release, so let's take a look at the calendar to see when the volatility will increase. The biggest event of the week is the Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data release that will play a major role in the highly anticipated Fed interest rate decision later this month (180k jobs expected, 4.7% unemployment rate). There is another interest rate decision, this time from European Central Bank on Thursday, but no change in policy is expected here (0.0% rate expected). The last interest rate decision comes from Australia, but again the Reserve Bank kept the official cash rate unchanged at 1.5% at their February meeting and it is expected to leave it unchanged again this month.
The list of the other events is here:
Monday, 6. March
04:00 pm GMT - USA Durable & Factory Orders
Tuesday, 7. March
03:30 am GMT - Australia Interest Rate Decision
10:00 am GMT - Q4 Euro Zone GDP
01:30 pm GMT - USA Trade Balance
Wednesday, 8. March
11:50 pm GMT - Japan Releases Q4 GDP Figures
01:15 pm GMT - ADP Employment Change from U.S.
01:30 pm GMT - Canadian Building Permits
Thursday, 9. March
01:30 am GMT - China CPI
12:45 pm GMT - ECB Intrest Rate Decision
01:30 pm GMT - ECB Press Conference
Friday, 10. March
09:30 am GMT - UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production
01:30 pm GMT - Canadian Unemployment Rate
01:30 pm GMT - NFP Payrolls
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture as the RBA will be the first bank to decide on the interest rate this week. The market had broken out of the dashed channel and almost reached 38%Fibo retracement at the level of 0.7518. Currently, the market conditions are oversold at the H4 time frame and the price is trading around the technical resistance at the level of 0.7606. If the RBA will not hike the interest rate, as market participants expect, then the price should move downward towards the level of 0.7518 and 0.7450. On the other hand, if the RBA will hike the interest rate, then the new high above the level of 0.7740 will be made.
