To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:
Yesterday I paid attention to the possibility of selling from the resistance of 1.0831, which was not enough to test about 3-4 points. This is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. The poor report of the European Commission and its forecasts for the future will continue to put pressure on the euro today, but the bulls will try to do everything to prevent a breakout of the low of 1.0787, on which a lot depends. Forming a false breakout at this level in the first half of the day will be a direct signal to open long positions while expecting a repeated return to the resistance of 1.0831 and consolidating on it. After this, you can expect to continue a larger upward correction to the highest area of 1.0882, where I recommend taking profit. I also recommend paying attention to the divergence that is formed on the MACD indicator, which will be an additional confirmation of the bullish correction. If the pressure on the euro persists after the release of fundamental statistics on the eurozone countries, then after the breakout of the support of 1.0787, I recommend postponing long positions to the test of the lows of 1.0755 and 1.0728 and buy EUR/USD from them immediately for a rebound based on a correction of 25-30 points within the day.
To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:
Sellers are still in full control of the market and are now aiming to return the pair to yesterday's low in the area of 1.0787. A repeated test of this level will lead to a new wave of selling EUR/USD with access to new areas of 1.0755 and 1.0728, where I recommend taking profits. However, a more pleasant gift for the bears will be an upward correction to the resistance area of 1.0831, which may occur today after the release of reports on retail trade volume and the balance of the eurozone countries. Forming a false breakout at this level will signal opening new short positions in the euro with the goal of breaking 1.0787 and updating new weekly lows. If there is no activity from sellers in the area of 1.0831, since an attempt was made yesterday to continue the bearish trend from this level, it is best to abandon short positions until the test of a larger high of 1.0882, where you can sell for a rebound in the expectation of a correction of 30-35 points within the day.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a bearish sentiment.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger bands
A break of the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.0815 may lead to a sharp increase in the euro. A break of the lower border at 1.0787 will increase the pressure on the pair.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
