EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 21. COT reports. Buyers continue to believe in growth, but this does not

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

The increase in the debt burden of the eurozone member countries has a negative impact on the European currency, which is going through a difficult time ahead of a number of important fundamental statistics that are waiting for us this week. Despite the fact that buyers continue to believe in strengthening the pair, this does not help the market much. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for April 14 recorded another increase in long positions, while short positions decreased, which positively affected the Delta. This indicates market expectations in favor of the European currency. Short non-commercial positions fell from 81,561 to 78,461, while long non-commercial positions jumped from 161,185 to 165,078. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position continued to increase in value, and reached 86,617 against 79,624, which indicates a clear interest in buying risky assets at attractively low prices. As for the intraday strategy, an unsuccessful attempt to break above the resistance of 1.0894 yesterday in the afternoon smoothly pushed the European currency under the 1.0851 level, which indicates the advantage of sellers. At the moment, the bulls need to regain the resistance of 1.0851 as soon as possible, which will be a signal to buy while expecting an update of the upper border of the side channel of 1.0894, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on the euro continues in the first half of the day, then you can expect to buy only if a false breakout is formed near the lower border of the channel 1.0814, which is what sellers are now aiming for. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions immediately on a rebound from the April low of 1.0770.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers achieved a break in the middle of the channel 1.0851 today during the Asian session, which they tried to do all day yesterday. At the moment, an important task will be to hold this range, where forming a false breakout will be a direct signal to open short positions based on the third test of the lower border of the 1.0814 side channel. A break in this area will lead to a larger sell-off of EUR/USD, and today's data on the mood and expectations in the German economy will only raise the pressure on the pair, opening a direct path for it to the April low of 1.0770, where I recommend taking profits. If the demand for the euro remains above the resistance of 1.0851, then it is best to return to short positions on the rebound from the high of 1.0894.


Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the preservation of the bear market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.0845 raises the pressure on the European currency. In the case of an upward correction, the upper border of the indicator in the 1.0890 area will act as resistance.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
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