Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 12/02/2019 and trading recommendation

The tragedy that happened on a Friday night in central London, as awful as it may sound, plays into the hands of Boris Johnson and the entire conservative party in Great Britain. Thus, the Tories are now only busy with the fact that they hang all the dogs on the Labour, since, according to them, it was the mitigation of punishment for an already convicted criminals, which the party led by Jeremy Corbyn at one time pushed through and became the cause of the incident. Argumentation is of course like that, however, just a week and a half before the early parliamentary elections, this will obviously weaken the position of the Labor Party, since Her Majesty's subjects now need ordinary and understandable explanations. This means that the probability of a conservative victory, led by Boris Johnson, is significantly increasing, and this is a positive signal for business, as it reduces the risk of uncertainty around Brexit. Moreover, since investors have clarity as to what and how will happen after the election, they feel much more confident. This is reflected in the sudden growth of the pound. Therefore, I repeat, no matter how terrible it may sound, the tragedy that happened supported the pound.

analytics5de4bceb819fd.png

Nevertheless, the growth was due solely to emotions, and today, investors are invited to look at some facts. In particular, we are talking about the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the UK, which should fall from 49.6 to 48.3. At the same time, similar data on the United States will be published a little later, which should coincide with the preliminary estimate, which showed an increase in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from 51.3 to 52.2. That is, in the bottom line, we have a decline in the optimism of industrialists in the United Kingdom, against the backdrop of its growth in America. As a result, the pound will inevitably be under pressure.

Manufacturing PMI (UK):

analytics5de4bd04d3a2c.png

In terms of technical analysis, we see that the GBP/USD pair locally accelerated after it reached a mirror level of 1.2885. The price jump brought us back to the resistance area of 1.2940, with which the last move began. On the other hand, the subsequent movement was in terms of narrow consolidation of 1.2930 / 1.2940, where the end of the trading day was in the form of a downward surge, and the opening of a new week in the form of a gap.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see that the quote is concentrated in the upper half of the six-week flat 1.2770 / 1.3000, where there were no cardinal changes, as well as the acceleration of volatility.

It is likely to assume that the relatively narrow fluctuation that is currently taking shape in the market will not last very long, where the gap can close at the beginning, but then there will be an increase from it, which is in the downward direction. Thus, a downward position is being considered to a greater extent, but after consolidating the price below the morning consolidation of 1.2909 / 1.2915.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- Long positions are considered in case of price fixing at higher than 1.2940.

- Short positions are considered in case of price fixing at lower than 1.2905.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators, relative to all the main time intervals, retain an upward interest.

analytics5de4bd1567500.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com