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USDCAD: Canadian dollar and oil may continue to decline

The Canadian dollar made several attempts to strengthen against the US dollar yesterday but eventually gave up. A good report on the bookmarks of new homes in Canada, which grew sharply, provided only temporary support.

According to data from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp, the number of bookmarks of new homes in April 2019 increased compared to the same period last year to 235,460 homes. The March data was revised to 191,981. Economists had expected the number of bookmarks to be 195,500 in April.

Most of the growth was due to faster construction of apartment buildings such as condominiums. Thus, the bookmarks of apartment buildings increased by 29.6%, to 175,732, and single-family homes by 6%, to 44,655. The moving average for six months rose to 206,103 from 202,420 in March.

As for the technical picture of the USDCAD pair, further growth is likely to continue after the breakthrough of the major resistance of 1.3495, to which the bulls are gradually selected from the beginning of this month. The breakdown of 1.3495 will give the pair a new upward momentum, which will lead to the renewal of highs in the area of 1.3540 and 1.3610. Bullish momentum can be formed today in the second half of the day when a number of reports on the American economy will be released. If the data turns out to be worse than economists' forecasts, it is likely that the pressure on the USDCAD pair will return, which will collapse the trading instrument in the region of the lower border of the side channel of 1.3410.

Oil quotes yesterday rose only slightly after data indicating that commercial US oil reserves declined, contrary to analysts' forecasts, which maintains the further potential development of the downward trend.

According to a report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, a week from April 27 to May 3, oil reserves fell by 4 million barrels to 466.6 million barrels, while analysts expected reserves to grow only by 200,000 barrels.

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A decrease was also noted in gasoline stocks. Thus, stocks unexpectedly fell by 596,000 barrels, to 226.2 million barrels, while analysts had expected reserves to decline by 1.3 million barrels. Distillate stocks also fell by 159,000 barrels to 125.6 million barrels, compared with analysts, who expected a reduction in reserves of 1.3 million barrels.

The utilization of refining capacity decreased by 0.3 percentage points, to 88.9%.

As for the technical picture of oil, a triangle is expected to break through. Going beyond $62 a barrel for WTI mark will lead to a new wave of growth in the area of $62.85 and $63.85. When the lower boundary of the triangle breaks out at 61.20, the pressure on oil will continue, leading to a renewal of the minimum of 60.35 and 58.15.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com