Over the past trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed volatility below the daily average of 80 points, resulting in a gradual recovery of short positions. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the corrective movement from the level of 1.2620 reached the value of 1.2746, where the echoes of the range level 1.2770 restrained the buyers and as a fact, a gradual recovery. Considering the graph in general terms, we see quite interesting trends. The primary phase, which is also a key, is going downwards. Then there is a certain lateral fluctuation in the calculation of 10 months of consideration, and closes the current fluctuation phase, which draws progress to the lower limit of the 10-month fluctuation. Putting it all together, we understand that if we start from the main trend, the focus now will be on the value of 1.2500, which is the pivot of the 10-month swing, and in case of its breakdown, the downward trend will continue its march. In order to visually see all these cycles, let us look at the GBPUSD D1 trading chart. On the other hand, the news background didn't have any statistics on the UK and the United States due to the weekends. If you roll back a little and return to the recent growth of the British currency, we see that unjustified emotions in connection with the imminent resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May led to growth, but understanding of all that is happening is not far off. There were already the first comments of possible candidates for the post of the leader. United Kingdom Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt said that an attempt to leave the EU without an agreement on conditions will require new general elections in the UK and will turn into a "political suicide" for the ruling Conservative Party, because its loss will be inevitable.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have only the S&P/ Case-Shiller housing price index in the United States, where they are waiting for a decline from 3.0% to 2.8%. The news, of course, is not in favor of the dollar. Yet, there is nothing good about the pound in the general information background.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation has gone to the phase of gradual recovery of short positions, slowing down in the area of 1.2670. It is likely to assume a temporary bump in the range of 1.2660 / 1.2710, where, in the event of further recovery, it will lower us to the level of 1.2620, and then analyze the behavior of the quotes for price fixing.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Positions to buy can be considered, in the case of a delay in fixing the price is higher than 1.2770.
- Positions to sell is possible to consider in case of price fixing lower than 1.2660, with the prospect of a move towards 1.2620.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators on all TFs have turned downward again due to an attempt to restore short positions.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(May 28, based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 37 points. If the negative background of the pound remains and the inertial move resumes, the volatility may increase.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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