Trading Plan for EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on 05/16/2019

For the first half of the day, the single European currency was engaged only in what was going down and its attitude could not be stopped even by the GDP data for the first quarter, which showed that the economic growth rate remained unchanged, instead of slowing down from 1.2% to 1%. The negative attitude towards the single European currency was fueled by expectations from American statistics, which did not materialize, from which the dollar had to give up its positions in the second half of the day. Thus, the growth rate of industrial production slowed from 2.3% to 0.9%, which should have remained unchanged. Also, the growth rate of retail sales slowed down from 3.8% to 3.1%, from which acceleration was expected. The only thing that could somehow please is the commercial reserves, which have not changed in a month. In many respects, the slowdown in industrial production growth rates is due to the continued growth of warehouse stocks. Thus, the possibility of even a recession in the industry is not excluded, especially if consumer activity decreases.


Yet, the pound confidently moved down because in Foggy Albion. They again remembered Brexit. Representatives of the conservative party demand that Theresa May resolve the issue as soon as possible. The Prime Minister is required to submit to the House of Commons by June 15 a draft agreement with the European Union, which will be arranged by the Parliament. After which, Teresa May should immediately resign. Otherwise, she was threatened with submitting a new bill to Parliament, which could provide for resettlement from the European dormitory without any agreement. Teresa May is trying to gain time and once again promising that in June she will provide the House of Commons with a version of Brexit that suits everyone. Although such statements cause many doubts, as negotiations with the head of the opposition Jeremy Corbin ended in complete failure. I.e, Whatever option Theresa May offered to Brexit, he will not be satisfied with this or that half of the parliamentarians. Hence, it will be rejected in any case.


Today, only the United States will please us with some statistics. Like yesterday, the forecasts for them are quite optimistic. In particular, the total number of applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced by 12 thousand. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits can be reduced by 8 thousand and the repeated applications by 4 thousand. Also, the number of construction projects is expected to increase by 66 thousand and the construction permits issued for 10 thousand. Thus, if yesterday's scenario does not repeat, then the dollar will be able to continue its growth when the actual data turned out to be diametrically opposed to the forecast.


The euro/dollar currency pair reached a recent cluster of 1.1180, where it felt a foothold and turned around. Probably, we can assume a temporary fluctuation in the range of 1.1180/1.1220.


The pound/dollar currency pair continues to please traders with a downward movement, overcoming the local minimum on April 25 on the way. We can assume a primary stagnation at 1.2825/1.2860 and in case of a breakdown of the lower boundary, we will continue the outgoing movement towards 1.2800-1.2770.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -