GBP/USD. May 15. Results of the day. Trump's actions support the dollar, but the pound will fall without this help

4-hour timeframe


The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 93p - 69p - 57p - 100p - 69p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 78p (82p).

Despite the fact that today there were no macroeconomic publications in the UK, and very weak macroeconomic data came from the United States, the pound sterling continued to fall against the US currency. It seems that the optimism of traders have dried up once again. Theresa May is still trying to negotiate with Labour in order to gain at least some kind of additional support before the new Parliamentary vote on the same document, which has already been voted for three times. I wonder what the point is with more and more new votes if nothing changes in the document. Even if the Parliament approves the "deal" with the EU, what will it look like from the outside? Parliament was three times against this "deal" - and suddenly approved it! In general, from our point of view, it is not surprising that the pound is falling again. By the way, today the pound/dollar pair overcame the previous local low - 1.2865. Thus, based on technical analysis, it is also possible to predict a downward movement. The ichimoku indicator clearly indicates a downward trend. The price rebound from the support level of 1.2841 can provoke and, most likely, will trigger a round of upward correction, after which we can expect the resumption of a downward trend. The MACD indicator may soon begin to discharge, since it is at fairly low levels. The pair will consolidate until tomorrow morning. No important reports are planned for tomorrow, but now the pair is also concerned about the topic of the trade war between China and the United States, as well as, of course, the topic of Brexit and the events around it.

Trading recommendations:

GBP/USD continues its downward movement. Therefore, now it is recommended to either maintain sell orders that were opened earlier, or wait for the completion of the correction, due to a rebound from the level of 1.2841, and then resume shorts with a goal of 1.2781.

Buy orders can be considered in small lots only when the price has consolidated above the Kijun-sen line with the first target of the pivot level at 1.3044.

In addition to the technical picture, also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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