EUR/USD
On Thursday, on the expectations of the US-China trade negotiations, which are already underway, the euro climbed more than 60 points, but having met with resistance on the daily balance line, it ended the day with a 23 point increase. On the daily chart, the price is between the balance and MACD lines, the marlin oscillator is in the growth zone, on the four-hour chart the price is higher than all indicator lines, the trend on H4 is completely increasing.
But we will not argue that if the negotiations fail, the euro will overcome the resistance of the trend line at 1.1280 and go higher. The observed growth has a more psychological basis, strategic investors have not yet entered the game, and they can buy back the dollar as a defensive tool, which will be followed by medium-sized investors. The business media are already preparing ground on the topic of Chinese default.
So, our main scenario is that the euro will decline, either from current levels, or from 1.1280 back to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.1155) and a further decline to the Fibonacci level of 123.6% on the price of 1.1075.
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