By the end of the last trading week, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a high volatility of 157 points. However, traders were expecting more. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quote showed a steady decline throughout the week, reaching a psychological level of 1.3000, where it slowed down as a result of movement and as a fact rolled back. Information and news background focused on the UK & EU "divorce" process, where the British Parliament rejected the agreement for the third time. What this means is that Britain will have to ask the European Union again to postpone or leave without a deal. In fact, Britain is already so bogged down in its debates that everyone has forgotten that there is no time anymore. Let me remind you that earlier in the EU, they said that they were waiting for a firm decision before March 29, but they got into trouble again. In turn, On March 31, Theresa May will be warned that her government will face a total collapse if she does not succeed in conducting a Brexit deal through parliament. This is due to the fact that the assistants to the Prime Minister cannot decide whether to accept a "soft" deal or hold general elections this week. From Europe, we have a reaction. "In light of the fact that the House of Commons rejected the agreement on withdrawal, I decided to hold a meeting of the European Council on April 10," Donald Tusk wrote on Twitter.
Today, the show with clowns will continue, the British Parliament will sit down to vote on alternatives once again. Current agreements and early elections - beginning at 2:30 pm and will end at 8:00 pm local time. In terms of the economic calendar, traders are waiting for data on retail sales in the United States, where they expect a slowdown from 2.3% to 2.1%, which could put pressure on the dollar.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a pullback from the level of 1.3000, where the quotation managed to bounce down to the value of 1.3082. But after that, it slowed down again. It is likely to assume that the information background and the current parliamentary vote will continue to exert pressure on the pound. For this reason, I do not rule out a hang within the range of 1.3000 / 1.3090, where all hope is only for statistics from the United States, which can temporarily help in forming a corrective move by pound.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- We consider buying positions in the case of price fixing higher than 1.3100, with a view to 1.3140-1.3170.
- Traders consider positions for selling as a local decline to the level of 1.3000. Yet, deeper moves will be considered only after a clear price fixing lower than 1.3000, with support for the information background.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there was an upward interest against the background of the level of 1.3000 in the short term. Meanwhile, intraday and mid-term prospects continue to maintain a downward interest against the general background of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(April 1 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 74 points. Due to the information and news background, the volatility of the day will remain at a high level.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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