EUR/USD
The main event on Friday was the publication of data on US GDP for the 1st quarter in the 2nd estimate. The indicator was raised from 2.2% to 3.2% while the indicator remained unchanged. In addition, there was an increase in consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in April - 97.2 points against 96.9 in March. The dollar, however, slightly weakened after the data was released, since, according to business media reports, investors were more focused on the quarterly basic price index of personal consumption expenditures, which added 1.3% versus 1.8% in the previous period. We doubt this interpretation of the dollar's behaviour, since this index is a factor in a hypothetical rate hike. The fact is that the inflation index of personal consumption expenditures is considered to be more significant than the CPI for the Fed's decision to change monetary policy. And although the Fed made it clear that there will be no rate hike this year, the event itself can be interpreted differently. The GDP data for the market is yet to be played.
US data on personal spending and personal income for February and March will be released today. Economists forecast a 0.4% rise in personal income after a 0.2% gain in February. Personal spending for February is seen rising 0.7%. We expect the deployment of attacks on counter currencies. It is likely for the euro to decline to 123.10% of the Fibonacci line of 123.6% of the daily timeframe.
On the four-hour chart, the marlin oscillator signal line reached the boundaries of the growth area. It is very possible that it will be followed by a turn downwards, as it was on April 23.
The question about the Fed's monetary policy, most likely, is not so much associated with a change in the rate but with a loss of independence from the White house (this is the key to the hype). But this question is also controversial, as to what extent can the ideology of independence coexist with the ideology of checks and balances. The Fed meeting on Wednesday may shed some light on these concepts. Whatever it was, the main reason for not raising the rate is the desire of the state to reduce the service of 21,988 trillion public debt. The Fed and the Treasury have always been in agreement.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com