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Fundamental Analysis of USDJPY for April 29, 2019

USD is expected to continue strengthening against JPY ahead of the Federal Funds and NFP reports scheduled for this week. The yen is affected by the mixed economic reports and likely to give in if the US reports come out strong, like the recent Advance GDP.

Thus, the US dollar is anticipated to firm against the yen in the coming days. The hopes of Donald Trump for re-election have always hinged on supercharging the US economy, and data showing faster than expected growth provided him a boost just as he was preparing to ramp up his campaign. The gross domestic product rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2019.

Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for April tops the list of data releases this week. Economists anticipate a gain of 181,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 3.8%. The American economy added 196,000 jobs in March, rebounding after just 33,000 jobs were added in the previous month. Moreover, evaluating the recent data, consumer confidence is expected to be boosted by equity market gains and the ongoing strength in the jobs market. This will be underlined by another decent rise in payrolls and a renewed uptick in wage growth after last month's surprise dip.

On Wednesday, the outcome of the FOMC meeting and the Federal Funds Rate report are going to be published. The regulator's interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.50%. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the meeting, investors await his insights on the policy outlook.

Today's US Core PCE Price Index is anticipated to inch up to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Personal Spending is also expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, and the Personal Income is to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2% as well.

On the JPY side, the Bank of Japan is still projecting a moderate expansion of the economy with weaker exports due to the global economic slowdown. The Bank intends to keep the current interest rate unchanged for an extended period and plans to purchase the Japanese government bonds (JGBs) so that 10-year JGB Yields remains at around 0%. The Japanese regulator decided to examine the uncertainties about the economic activity along with the effect of the scheduled consumption tax hike and planned to continue the QQE on an extreme level. The extreme QQE might make the yen weaker against all other major currencies.

The bank forecasts a strong labor market with the consumer price index below a 2% target. The industrial production showed a weaker-than-expected result and dropped from 1.4% to 0.7%. The retail sales index increased to 1.0%. The trade Balance came in at -0.18T, while the forecast was -e30T. As a result, the market is expected to be volatile. The final Manufacturing PMI scheduled for this week is going to remain unchanged at 49.5.

Currently, the upcoming economic reports from the United States provide support for the greenback which is likely to gain further momentum. However, any disappointing news may slow it down.

Now, let us look at the technical view. The pair has a strong bullish trend. It is likely to move higher after it has recently bounced from the 111.35-50 support area with a daily close. Moreover, it might jump much higher towards the 114.50-115.00 area in the coming days. As far as the price remains above 110.00 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -