Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for February 12, 2019

GBP/USD dropped below 1.2930 area under impulsive bearish pressure recently which changed the bias to bearish, aiming for further bearish momentum. The UK GDP showed a slowdown in the domestic economy in the final quarter of 2018. Besides, the BREXIT pressure is still going on that is certainly bearish for GBP for the medium term.

British Finance Minister Hammond's expressed an optimistic approach to turn the country's budget deficit to surplus by 2020. However, his optimism is currently fading away as he relaxed his grip on public spending last year. Recently UK GDP report revealed that economic growth contracted to -0.4% in December month-on-month from the previous 0.2% gain which was expected to be at 0.0%, Manufacturing Production decreased to -0.7% from the previous value of -0.1% which was expected to increase to 0.2%, Prelim GDP eased to 0.2% in Q4 2018 from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to be at 0.3%, and Prelim Business Investments also decreased to -1.4% from the previous value of -1.1% which was expected to be at -1.3%. Additionally, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is currently looking for more BREXIT talks with the EU but the eurozone negotiator is not really falling for May's proposal which may lead to more probability of No Deal BREXIT on March 29th.

On the other hand, recently Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated the US economy is on a sound footing and the ongoing monetary policy is likely to spur economic growth. The US congressional negotiators reached a tentative deal to avert another partial government shutdown on Friday as it is slowing down the overall economic growth and may lead to further weakness of the economy if no proper measures are taken in due time. Today FED Chair Powell is going to speak about the upcoming policies and steps of monetary tightening. His comments are expected to have a positive impact on USD gains in the coming days.

Meanwhile, USD is the dominant currency in the pair which is being supported by the optimistic FED and downbeat economic reports from the UK. Until the UK comes up with better economic data and fundamentals which is highly unlikely at present, GBP is set to lose more steam.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading below 1.2930 area with an impulsive bearish daily close from where it is expected to retrace and retest in the coming days before pushing much lower in the future. As the price remains below 1.30 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 1.2500, 1.2700-50

RESISTANCE: 1.2930, 1.30




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