Overview of the foreign exchange market on 01/17/2019

The indecencies that happen in Foggy Albion can confuse anyone. Either by an overwhelming majority, respected people in parliament reject the option of a divorce agreement with a European dormitory, the next day they express support for the lady who brought this agreement to them the next day. Before the vote, Theresa May herself assured all those present that if the government was dissolved and the matter reached early elections, the new cabinet would simply not have time to hold talks with the European Union. For many parliamentarians who demand just the earliest possible elaboration of the economic component of this unfortunate agreement, this was enough. And although the devil's leg will break, it was this decision of Her Majesty's chosen ones who supported the pound, which was able to withstand the sad news about the decline in inflation from 2.3% to 2.1%.


The single European currency continued its sluggish decline, which is most likely due to the expectations of today's publication of the final inflation data, which should confirm its decline from 1.9% to 1.6%. After all, such a significant slowdown in inflation calls into question the possibility of considering raising the refinancing rate until the end of autumn. Rather, this issue will be postponed until the end of the summer. However, the data itself is unlikely to have any impact on the market, either because of the fact that market participants have already prepared for the sad news, and because of the projected increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Their total number should increase by 17 thousand. At the same time, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits should increase by 4 thousand, while repeated ones will immediately increase by 13 thousand. So the single European currency will remain around 1.1375 - 1.1400.


The situation is similar to the pound, and although the American data are strictly negative, the events around Brexit only generate uncertainty, which does not inspire much confidence. So the pound will be relatively stable, and the auction will take place in the region of 1.2875.


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