In the foreign exchange market unstable equilibrium


The euro partially lose ground before the publication of the report on inflation in December, while the forecasts are still neutral, but a number of factors, such as a decline in manufacturing activity in Germany, a general fall in PMI in the eurozone and Brexit uncertainty, put pressure on the euro.

Support for EUR/ USD 1.1330 / 35, growth is limited by the level of 1.1420, slightly more likely to move up during the day.

Great Britain

Against the backdrop of increasing political crisis, the pound received unexpected support. Despite the fact that inflation slowed to a two-year low in December, it was still slightly higher than expected, and the base index without taking into account volatile energy and food prices even rose from 1.8% to 1.9%, which gives hope that the slowdown in price growth will end as soon as oil prices stabilize.


As expected, some conservatives who voted against the Brexit agreement with the EU did not dare to repeat their trick on the question of confidence in the cabinet of ministers, as a result of which Theresa May managed to keep her post. This victory, however, may turn out to be Pyrrhic. The conservatives just don't want to allow extraordinary elections, as they may lose some of the seats, but a positive outcome does not add any chance that by January 21, a Brexit solution will be found that suits everyone.

The head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, commenting on the voting results, noted that the market's expectations are most clearly reflected in the foreign exchange market. The pound remained close to local maximum, which, in his opinion, indicates a good prospect of reaching an agreement with the EU. At the same time, the EU coordinator at the Brexit talks, Michel Barnier, believes that the likelihood of a tough Brexit has risen to an "unprecedented level" without any agreement.

No macroeconomic publications on the pound are expected until the end of the week, so all attention will be focused on possible insights regarding preparations for the January 21 parliamentary session, the last opportunity to reach an agreement. GBP / USD with a high probability will not go beyond the range of 1.2805 / 1.2930 until any significant news appears.


Oil prices adjusted downward after the publication of the weekly report by the US Department of Energy, which showed a record increase to 11.9 million barrels per day. We also need to note higher than expected reserves of gasoline and crude oil. US production is growing, largely offsetting a decline in OPEC +, which prevents market balancing.

At the same time, surprisingly, production growth in the USA occurs without the growth of three main indicators, the number of drilling rigs, investment in the mining sector and employment, which are at levels lower than during the time of the second oil bubble of 2011/14.


Such unexpected statistics can indicate either an unprecedented increase in the efficiency of production, that is, the triumph of modern technologies, or the fact that something is not in order with the methods of calculating own production. In any case, the factor of record production in the United States will prevent oil prices from continuing to grow, therefore stabilization in the range of 58.90 / 62.60 formed last week is more likely.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -