Markets fear the start of a new economic crisis

More and more often, markets are starting to talk about impending recession in a number of economically developed countries. At the beginning of this year, such conversations arose regarding the prospects for the Japanese economy, which could not get out of economic problems, while continuing to stimulate the national economy by pouring unprecedented amounts of money into it. The sharp drop in economic growth in the wake of lower inflationary pressure in the eurozone has bothered the ECB President M. Draghi, who reported that the monetary policy of the regulator will remain soft for a considerable period of time. Against this background, the expert community started talking about the risk of an economic recession already in Europe. This week, such conversations began with respect to Canada, and the publication on Wednesday of data on retail sales in the country only reinforces such concerns.

According to the data presented, the basic index of retail sales in Canada in November fell by 0.6% against a decline for the previous period under review by 0.2% and a forecast for a decrease by 0.4%. The industrial output index also declined stronger than forecast, losing 0.9% against a 0.2% increase and expectations of a 0.6% decline.

But, despite these numbers and growing fears over the prospects for the Canadian economy, the local currency not only did not fall against the US dollar but even received some support in the wake of the stabilization of crude oil prices and still remaining hopes that they would not fall, and the trade agreement between the United States and China will keep the world economy from a new economic crisis.

Recently, the market is growing expectations that the exit of Britain from the EU will not take place in March of this year and that it can be transferred. For this reason, there is a strengthening of the sterling rate, which is completely at the mercy of Brexit. If these expectations are strengthened, then against the background of the weakness of the US dollar, the British currency may continue to rise in the short term.

Today, the most important event of the day will be the outcome of the ECB's monetary policy meeting. We do not expect its parameters to be changed. Important will be the press conference of M. Draghi. In our opinion, if he shows high concern about the growth prospects of the eurozone economy and if he again says that the monetary rate will remain soft for a long time, then the single currency may be under pressure. But, it seems to us, not so significant in tandem with the US dollar, since the extreme weakness of the latter's rate will compensate for the weakening of the euro currency.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is consolidating, remaining in the range of 1.1335-1.1400. It is likely that it will remain so in it at the end of the ECB meeting and even decrease to its lower boundary. And only if Draghi suddenly becomes optimistic, then the pair can break out of the range and rush to 1.1435, breaking the mark of 1.1400.

The currency pair GBP / USD is locally overbought and can correct down to 1.3000 after falling below 1.3050, before resuming growth to 1.3150.

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