Dollar is in no hurry to sign up as an outsider, path to easing promises to be thorny

According to analysts Saxo Bank, the movement towards a weaker dollar may gain momentum if the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will have to completely change its course due to the slowdown of the American and global economies in the foreseeable future.


"The Fed seems to gradually come to understand the reality, in which the crackdown and a strong dollar are less consistent with financial stability, it is not surprising that the beginning of 2019 was marked by a sharp shift in the rhetoric of the regulator," representatives of the financial institute said.

"However, the Fed may still take a long time to fully unfold the course, and the lack of reasons for optimism in the global economy can make the path to a steady weak dollar in 2019 rather thorny. The difficulty lies in the fact that greenback and US national debt are the most liquid instruments in times of global instability, "they added.

"If we are moving towards a further decline in world markets, primarily due to concerns about a slowdown in global and American GDP growth, it is possible that the dollar exchange rate will make sharp jumps from time to time," noted Saxo Bank currency strategies.

According to experts, the tactical right decision in such circumstances seems to be the transfer of capital into instruments with greater protective properties than the dollar. In particular, the Japanese yen can claim this role.

Meanwhile, according to a consensus forecast of economists recently surveyed by Bloomberg, the main favorite among the G10 currencies in 2019 may be the Norwegian krone, which is expected to strengthen against the dollar by more than 9%. If over the past few years, the difference in the courses of the Fed and the Norwegian Bank played into the hands of the "American", the situation may change radically this year, which will allow us to expect a decrease in the USD / NOK pair to 8.2.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -