Forecast for EUR/USD on January 8, 2019

EUR/USD

On Monday, taking advantage of the corrective growth of the euro, investors played a good performance in retail sales of the eurozone - the November index showed an increase of 0.6%. At the same time, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI decreased from 60.7 to 57.6 in December. But the volume of German industrial orders fell by 1.0% against the forecast of -0.2%, and today it can have a negative impact on German industrial production in November – the forecast assumes an increase of 0.3%, but there was a risk of a much worse output. According to the French trade balance, the forecast is -4.9 billion euros (for November) against -4.1 billion in October. In the United States, the trade balance, on the contrary, is expected with an improvement: the forecast is $ 54.0 billion against -55.5 a month earlier.

Technically, the price has moved above the Krusenstern indicator trend line on the daily chart. To attack the key resistance of 1.1497, allowing the price to increase to 1.1620, the euro did not dare. The divergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator is not broken, the probability of a decrease to 1.1407 with an attempt to overcome the downward line of the price channel remains high. We continue to consider this option as the main one. Fixing prices above 1.1497 breathed into the bulls new strength and price may go up to 1.1620.

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