4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 65p - 78p - 115p - 118p - 78p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 91p (87p).
The EUR/USD currency pair fell slightly on the third trading day of the week. We cannot say that the volatility of the instrument has significantly decreased, the average value for the last 5 trading days is 91 points, which is not so little for the European currency. However, as we can see, a pronounced trend in recent weeks is absent and today there was no reason to change this trend. We believe that by the end of 2018, the pair will remain in such a fairly wide side channel with an upper border of about 1.1470 and a lower one – about 1.1270. No important macroeconomic events were expected during the day. Accordingly, there was nothing for traders to react to. From a technical point of view, the pair perfectly adjusted to the critical Kijun-sen line, from which it rebounded and resumed its downward movement within the side channel. Thus, we are now expecting a decline to the area of 1.1270 - 1.1300, where a reversal may occur. In the coming week, we do not even expect the arrival of important fundamental data, so we do not expect the resumption of a downtrend or the beginning of an uptrend. The only thing that may unexpectedly go to the media is any new developments related to Donald Trump, who seems seriously intent on dismissing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will be quite difficult in terms of US law.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair resumed its downward movement. Thus, short positions with a target of 1.1288 are now relevant. A reversal of the MACD indicator up will serve as a signal to the beginning of the upward correction.
Buy-positions are recommended to be considered if traders overcome the critical line. In this case, the longs can be opened with a target of 1.1470, but small lots, as there may be surprises in the price movement during the holiday week.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com