Forecast for EUR / USD pair on October 11, 2018

EUR / USD pair

The collapse of the US stock market was the main event yesterday. The Dow Jones index lost 3.15% and the S & P500 broad market index collapsed 3.29%, as well as, the Nasdaq technology sector dropped by 4.08%. There were no obvious reasons for such a collapse but it seems that the driving factor for such cases is traditional as the market collapsed under its own weight. For a very long time, the indices grew only because of the optimism of Trump and the buyback. As a result, investors began to invest in US government bonds whereby the yield on 5-year securities fell from 3.057% to 3.011%. However, this is a slight decrease in yield relative to the fall of the stock market. Similarly, the dollar did not actively buy up investors and even slightly lost in value. The USD index fell by 0.18% while the euro rose by 29 points. But if, for example, the collapse of the market was preceded by the bankruptcy of any bank, then we would see a stronger fall in government bond yields and a fall in the euro. The situation is similar to was at the beginning of February of this year, when the market was shaken up a bit with a relatively stable euro and the single currency then lost two pieces.

Donald Trump has already managed to describe yesterday's collapse as a healthy correction of the bull market. While the script is exactly like that but it was only aggravated by trade wars and general political instability in the world. For these reasons, we do not expect any strong or average growth of dollar counter currencies. The euro can reach the previously forecast goal of 1.1624, which is the Fibonacci retracement level from the fall line from September 24.



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