In the market, there is a downward channel from January 2008. The price, having tested the resistance line of this channel (orange fat line), since January moves downwards. When moving down the market could not overcome from the first time the area consisting of the support line 1.1302 (red bold line) and the recessionary 50% level - 1.1447 (yellow dotted line). As a result, the price went up in a rollback, by 300 points, reaching a recession level of 23.6% - 1.1602 (blue dotted line). It remains to determine the indicator analysis and draw a general conclusion, where the price will go. Two factors play upward here, the rollback usually ends at 38.2% (1.1780 - the blue dotted line) and the fourth point of the support line's line (red bold line). According to the classics, the contact of the price for the fourth time of the support line gives the probability of a top job of 70%.
Trend analysis (Figure 1).
The price in September will try once again to break through the support line 1.1302 (red bold line), so the nearest goal when moving down and will be this level.
Fig. 2 (monthly chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- Volumes - upwards;
- Candlestick analysis - up;
- Trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - down;
Conclusion on complex analysis - most likely, the top job.
The total result of the calculation of the candle of the EUR / USD currency pair on a monthly chart: the price is most likely to have an upward trend with the presence of the first lower shadow (the first week of the month - the lower one) of the monthly white candle and the presence of the second upper shadow (last week is black).
The first top target is the retracement level of 38.2% 1.1780 (blue dotted line).
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com