Technical outlook:
The US Dollar Index H4 chart presented here is indicating a high probability of a lower setup for now. The index peaked at 91.98 levels on Friday before resuming a correction lower. Please note that the Fibonacci 0.382 support comes in around 90.90 levels, which could offer the first level of support. The pair has also produced an engulfing bearish candle right around 92.00 levels, indicating at least a bearish corrective drop. Aggressive traders who took short positions on Friday as suggested may hold their respective positions for a while. On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for another low before initiating long positions again. Looking at the wave counts, the pair has completed waves 1,2 and 3 higher, of the same degree and wave 4 should be underway now. The termination point of wave 4 should be around 90.90 levels going forward.
Trading plan:
Aggressive traders remain short with stop above Friday high.
Fundamental outlook:
Watch out for German Consumer Price Index and US PCE Core to be out today between 08:00 AM to 08:30 AM EST.
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