Trading plan for 11/04/2018

The weaker data on inflation from China has undermined optimism in the Asian session. The biggest changes are on AUD and NZD cross versus JPY. Oil is lower after the adverse effect of the API report. Mixed moods are on the stock market. The Nikkei gave the initial increases and loses 0.4 percent. At the same time, the Shanghai Composite is defending itself by 0.6%.

On Wednesday 11th of April, the event calendar is busy with important data releases. Italy will issue the Retail Sales data, the UK will post the Manufacturing and Industrial Production data, Goods Trade Balance and Construction Output data. Meanwhile, the US will post CPI and Core CPI data, Crude Oil Inventories data and FOMC Meeting Minutes in the evening. Moreover, there is a scheduled speech from ECB President Mario Draghi later in the day.

Crude Oil analysis for 11/04/2018:

According to the API report, last week crude oil inventories in the US rose 1.8 million barrels after a drop of 3.3 million barrels a week earlier. This is an unexpected result for the forecast before the Department of Energy report assuming a drop in inventories by 1m bbl. Gasoline inventories increased by 2 million barrels and distillates dropped by 3.8 million. In general, the report had a slightly negative tone which meant a decrease of about 30 cents for WTI prices. The second one was done after disappointment with data from China and now WTI is just under 65.3 USD per barrel.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture on the H4 time frame. The recent spike up from the oversold market conditions resulted in a local top at the level of 65.84, just below the key technical resistance at the level of 66.69. The momentum followed the price as it broke above its fifty level as well. The spike looks solid and strong, and bulls might try to test the wall of resistance between the levels of 66.35 - 66.69. If this zine is violated, then the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 50% Fibo retracement at 66.84. The immediate support is seen at the level of 64.16.

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