Trading plan for 09/03/2018

President Trump approved new duties on steel and aluminum imports, condemning the decisions of the US's main trading partners. Trump also accepted the invitation to meet the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, which improved the mood on the market. The Bank of Japan, as expected, maintained its policy unchanged. Generally, you can not see too much market volatility and investors are probably waiting for a report from the US labor market.

On Friday 9th of March, the main event of the day is NFP-Payrolls data release, together with Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. Nevertheless, market participants will get to know more data from the UK (Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Visible Trade Balance), Germany ( Trade Balance, Industrial Production) and Canada (Unemployment Rate and Employment Change). Moreover, there are two speeches from FOMC officials scheduled later in the day: Charles Evans and Eric Rosengren.

USD/CAD analysis for 09/03/2018:

As promised, US President Donald Trump approved new duties on imports of steel and aluminum. The decision takes effect in 15 days. Canada and Mexico are exempt from duties, although the secretary of commerce Wilbur Ross said that the concession would be an incentive to reach a fair agreement on the NAFTA case. Despite yesterday's suggestions, Australia has not received a definite answer on whether it will be excluded from new duties. The fact that Trump is ready to meet Kim Jong Un had more influence on the market. It supported moods on Asian stock exchanges (Nikkei + 0.47%).

Let's now take a look at USD/CAD technical picture after the Trump decision on duties was made official. After the level of 1.3000 was tested several times, the market is still hovering around the technical support zone between the levels of 1.2836 - 1.2919. Moreover, the price is still above the black short-term trend line, but the better-than-expected data from the Canadian job market can trigger the down move from the overbought market conditions (Unemployment Rate 5.9% vs. 5.9%; Employment Change 21.3k vs. -88.0k). The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.2760.


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