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Global macro analysis for 29/01/2018

President Donald Trump, speaking on Friday at Davos, hinted that he would continue to promote the America First program, but he does not mean "America alone" because when "America is growing, the whole world is growing". He added that Washington would no longer tolerate unfair commercial practices. He added that the US supports free trade, but it should be "equal and reciprocal". He encouraged investors to invest in the US, making it clear that tax reform has improved the investment climate, and the country is experiencing strong economic growth after years of stagnation. Referring to the TPP project (Trans-Pacific Partnership, from which the USA withdrew a year ago), it did not rule out the possibility of negotiating bilateral trade agreements with selected countries. The media estimated that the White House chief's visit was better than expected, and Trump turned out to be more pragmatic.

Nevertheless, the US Preliminary GDP data released on Friday were worse than expected - in the past year, the increase amounted to 2.6% against estimated 3.0% (3.2% prior). However, inflation measures slightly exceeded the estimates - GDP deflator 2.4% and PCE Core 1.9% q/q. The Durable Goods Orders dynamics were released at 2.9% m/m in December, which was much better than expected 0.8% m/m. However, without the inclusion of transport, the figures were in line with the forecast at 0.6% m/m.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price is still testing the local lows at the level of 108.27 and all of the bounces are were limited in price. The momentum remains below its fifty level and the market conditions are still oversold. The key resistance zone is still seen at the level of 110.19 - 110.32.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -