Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for October 19, 2017

AUD/USD has been quite volatile and corrective recently residing between the range of 0.7750 to 0.7900 area. Australia posted quite positive economic reports today which helped the national currency to gain over USD but the gain was not quite impulsive as expected. Today Australia's Employment Change report was published with better than expected figure of 19.8k from the previous figure of 53.0k which was forecasted to be at 14.1k. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate decreased to 5.5% which was expected to be unchanged at 5.6%. The United States will publish the Unemployment Claims report today which is expected to decrease to 240k from the previous figure of 243k. If the result comes better than expected, then it will help the currency to gain momentum against AUD. Along with this economic report, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 21.9 from the previous figure of 23.8. Furthemore, the CB Leading Index report is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.4% while the Natural Gas Storage report is also expected to decrease to 59B from the previous figure of 87B. Though USD has been struggling to keep with the AUD recently due to worse economic reports, but currently it is anticipated that USD has good probability to gain over AUD soon. Most of the US economic reports are expected to show negative result today but if the results come better than expected, then we might see impulsive bearish pressure in the pair taking out the recent support levels and proceeding further downwards in the future. AUD have been quite positive with the economic reports but the lack of impulsiveness does indicate that AUD is quite weak in comparison to USD to push the price above to create new highs. To sum up, currently AUD/USD pair is in indecision bias. Until price breaks out of this correction, non-directional indication can be made but as of the current situation USD is expected to have an upper hand over AUD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing just below the resistance area of 0.7875-0.7900. The price is also residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA support and trend line support as well, which also indicates that bullish breakout is quite imminent. In this case, we will be looking forward to buy only when the price breaks above the 0.7900 with a daily close with target towards 0.8100 resistance area. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the trendline support of 0.7850 with a daily close, then we will be looking forward to sell with target towards 0.7750 and later towards 0.7550 in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.79 resistance area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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