Fundamental Analysis of AUDUSD for October 12, 2017

AUD/USD recently bounced off the 0.7750 support level and continued higher above 0.7815 with further bullish ambition towards 0.80. This week, AUD has been quite positive with the economic reports, whereas USD has been quite weak due to recent worse economic reports. Today, AUD MI Inflation Expectation showed an increase to 4.3% from the previous value of 3.8% and Home Loans report showed a decrease to 1.0%, up from expectations of 0.5% and below the previous value of 2.8%. The better-than-expected reports and increased inflation are strong indicators of the economic development helping the currency to gain further over USD today. On the USD side, today's PPI report was published with an increase as expected at 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%. Unemployment Claims showed a positive change with a decrease to 243k from the previous figure of 258k, which was expected to be at 251k. The core PPI report showed an increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.1%, which was expected to be at 0.2%. The Crude Oil Inventories data were published -2.7M from the previous figure of -6.0M, which was expected to be at -1.9M. Additionally, FOMC Member Brainard and Powell spoke neutral about key interest rates and future monetary policies helping the currency to gain momentum against AUD today. As of the current scenario, AUD is quite strong with positive economic reports, where USD is still struggling to show any impact in the market as the interest rates decision is expected to hit the market in December and no highly ambitious efforts are being made by the FOMC members to signal any significant improvement in the future. AUD is expected to have an upper hand over USD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the support area of 0.7750 – 0.7815, but the dynamic level is still above the price and can act as a resistance to push the price lower again. As of the current market scenario, the price is expected to proceed higher towards 0.80 in the coming days if it remains above the support area with a daily close. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the lowest support level of 0.7750 with a daily close, then the bias will change to bearish with a target towards 0.7350. The bullish bias is expected to continue as the price remains above the support area.

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