Global macro overview for 01/08/2017

Global macro overview for 01/08/2017:

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.5% as expected. In the monetary statement, the RBA expressed concerns regarding the recent rise in the Australian dollar, that is weighing on the outlook for output and employment. The strong national currency is restraining price pressures and would slow the economy. Moreover, the other source of uncertainty for domestic economy is the outlook for consumption as the RBA policy makers expect a gradual increase in underlying inflation. Forecasts for the Australian economy are largely unchanged and the economic growth is expected to pick up to around 3% later this year. Regarding the housing market, there are some signs indicating that housing market starting to cool down despite the fact that house prices are rising briskly in some markets and housing debt have outpaced slow growth in incomes. The job market situation looks solid, as forward looking indicators point to growth in employment. The last piece of the statement was related to the commodity prices, and the RBA policymakers mentioned that improving global economy boosts commodity prices, Australia's national income.

In conclusion, the RBA has been trying to talk down the recent AUD rally towards multi-months high by expressing some concerns weighing on employment and economic outlook, but market participants expected more dovishness in the overall statements. Nevertheless, the next possible move of the RBA is to hike the interest rates relatively soon, which is why AUD is still being supported across the board.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The price keeps trading near multi-month highs around the level of 0.8065 with the nearest technical support seen at the level of 0.7934. As long as the navy trend line is not clearly violated, the outlook remains bullish.


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