Global macro overview for 20/07/2017:
The Australian job market data were better than expected as the full-time employment surprises. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the latest labour force data for June 2017 shows that while total employment rose only modestly by 14k people the strong rebound in full-time employment from last month increased up to 62k people, following a revised gain of 53,4k people in May. Part-time employment fell sharply by 48k people. As a result of a rise in the participation rate by 0.1% (which monitors people that are employed or actively searching for work), the unemployment rose by 13,1k people, although the official unemployment rate was steady at 5.6% after the ABS revised it upwards by 0.1% from the May result.
Australia's job market rebounded sharply through the first half of the year after going through a soft patch for the most part of 2016. Declines in full-time employment and a surge in part-time work characterized the Australian economy last year, raising concern over the quality of jobs being created. Nevertheless, since the peak at the middle of 2015, the unemployment rate has decreased from 6.4% to 5.6% and the employment has been increasing for the last nine consequtive months. In this situation, a further improvement in the labour market conditions may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to change the course of monetary policy. After the better than expected mid-term inflation data and sound health of the domestic economy, the RBA might start to signal a willingness to increase the interest rate hike sooner than global investors expect. This will in return cause an appreciation of the Australian Dollar across the board.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/AUD technical picture on the daily time frame. After the decline from the level of 1.5082, the bulls have managed to bounce the price from the 50%Fibo at the level of 1.4432 and now are trying to test from below the nearest technical resistance at the level of 1.4629. A successful breakout above this level would open the road towards the next technical resistance seen at the level of 1.4782. Otherwise, the bias remains bearish.
