Wave analysis of EUR/USD for September 14. Emotional response to US inflation was short-lived


The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD currency pair remains the same. The pair still passes no more than 50 points per day, which does not allow making any changes. In the last week, we saw a slight decline in quotes, which was caused by an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level. However, at the moment, the decline in quotes has already ended, as has the entire corrective wave b. If this is indeed the case, then the instrument has moved to the construction of the wave c with targets located near the 1.2036 mark, which corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci level. The entire upward section of the trend may turn out to be more extended or five-wave. However, at this time, I expect to see another correction, and not an impulse one. The proposed wave b may become a little more complicated, but there is not much left before its completion in any case. Today, the news background supported the demand for the euro currency, which allowed us to presumably start building wave c. The option of complicating the downward trend section (which is now considered completed) still looks unlikely.

The news background for the EUR/USD pair was quite strong on Tuesday. The currency pair rose by 40 basis points after the US inflation report for August was released. However, in the next hour, the quotes began to decline, so in general, the pair continues to move very sluggishly, and the markets continue to trade very inactively. US inflation fell to 5.3% YoY in August while core inflation slowed to 4.0% YoY. It was the fact of the decline in the consumer price index that allowed the euro currency to grow on Tuesday. But, as I have already said, this increase is extremely weak. Therefore, the entire wave c can turn out to be very long. Because if the instrument continues to pass 40 basis points per day, then it will take three or four weeks to build the entire wave c.

Yesterday and at the end of last week, all the most interesting messages came from the ECB, but there was not a single one that the markets would want to work out. Perhaps, now the main problem of the Euro/Dollar pair is the weak market activity. Thus, either wait until wave c is built for several weeks, or wait for the markets to start trading more actively. Now almost any news background does not cause any strong movements. And when there is no news background, the movements are even weaker.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward wave b could have ended around the 1.1771 mark. Therefore, I still expect an increase in quotes. So, I still advise buying the pair with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2036 marks, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, for each MACD signal "up." A successful attempt to break through the level of 1.1805, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci level, indicates the readiness of the markets to build a wave c.


The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section.

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