Wave analysis of EUR/USD for September 8. Euro declines ahead of ECB meeting


The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. The pair still passes no more than 50 points per day, which practically does not cause any changes. Only in the last couple of days, we have seen a slight decline in quotes, which was caused by an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Thus, presumably, the construction of a new downward wave has begun, which may be wave b as part of the upward trend section. The first wave of this section does not yet give grounds to conclude that it will turn out to be impulsive. So far, everything looks as if we will see a new correction, three-wave or five-wave, it does not matter. With the correction status of the pair's quotes, it is unlikely to continue increasing above the 42nd figure, near which the construction of the previous upward trend was completed. I am also not considering the option of complicating the downward trend section and do not expect a strong decline in the instrument.

There was no news background for the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday. Throughout the day, there was not a single report or event in either Europe or America. Thus, the decline of the European currency by 35 basis points could not be caused by the disappointment of the markets due to any European report. It's just a normal movement. Given the unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.1893 mark and the need to build a corrective wave, I would call these factors the reasons for the quotes' exit from the reached highs. Also, it was at this mark that the construction of the last wave d was completed. This is the only factor that now speaks in favor of complicating the downward trend section, but it may also be just a coincidence.

The results of the ECB's September meeting will be summed up in the European Union tomorrow. I don't expect much from this event. Everything is clear that monetary policy will not change. The scope of the PEPP program will not change either. Christine Lagarde can only say that the pace of asset purchases will either increase in the near future or decrease, as she has already stated several times in 2021. Therefore, I expect an increase in the amplitude of the EUR/USD pair tomorrow, but it is hardly worth waiting for a strong decline or increase in quotes. No important decisions are expected at this meeting. In America, there is even less chance that the news background will somehow affect the mood of the markets.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward trend could have ended around the level of 1.1704, which is equal to 100.0% Fibonacci level. So now I'm still waiting for the construction of an upward set of waves. Therefore, I still advise buying the pair with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2027 marks, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, for each MACD signal "up". An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.1895 mark, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, indicates that the markets are ready to build wave b. Therefore, I recommend resuming purchases above 1.1895 or after the completion of wave b.


The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section.

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