Analysis of GBP/USD. September 6. Pound sluggishly declines and prepares for new growth


For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave counting at this time still looks quite convincing and does not require any additions and adjustments. Supposed waves a, b and c of the supposed upward trend segment are quite extended. Nevertheless, the wave counting itself is beyond doubt. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.3873 mark, which equates to 23.6% Fibonacci, indicates that the quotes could possibly leave the highs it reached, but it is unlikely to complete the construction of the wave c itself, which should take on a much longer form than it is now. If the current wave counting is correct, then the rise in quotes should continue to at least 1.3980 (peak of wave a). Thus, I am expecting a breakthrough of 1.3873 and a further rise in quotes in the direction of the January peaks. At this time, there is still no reason to assume the complication of the current wave counting. An upward trend can take on a three-wave or a five-wave form. It is precisely the nature of the waves that it already differs from several previous ones. All waves in it are much more extended.

The pound/dollar instrument fell 35 basis points on Monday. I hardly need to specify that this is a very weak movement. Today the markets were devoid of interesting events. In the UK, only the PMI for the construction sector came out, which fell from 58.7 points to 55.2 in August. Thus, the pound could come under a little pressure because of this report. However, it started to fall at night and continued to do so throughout the day. The PMI report could only slightly affect this movement. Otherwise, there was nothing interesting during the day. Even the speech of Catherine L. Mann, a newly minted member of the Bank of England, who replaced Gertjan Vlieghe, did not give anything new to the markets. Mann and her colleague Michael Saunders will deliver another speech on Tuesday. Now it is important to understand how the balance of power among the members of the Bank of England's monetary committee will change. Let me remind you that at the last meetings, only one member of the committee voted in favor of reducing the program to stimulate the economy. And he has already left the committee. However, with the arrival of new board members, the number of economists who support the phasing out of asset purchases from the market may increase. Thus, as in the United States, the most acute issue now is the BoE's attitude and its members in relation to monetary policy. There is even a feeling that the markets are waiting for specifics from both central banks and until that time are not ready to trade actively as before.

The wave pattern is now more or less clear. I still expect to build an upward wave, so at this time I propose to consider buying the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located around 1.4000 (the first target). The instrument has supposedly completed the construction of the downward wave b and is ready to continue rising.


The upward part of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken on a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new part of the trend may acquire an impulsive form, its first wave acquired a rather extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of another sharp increase in quotes are growing. If the news background does not interfere, then the quotes should continue to rise in the near future.

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