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Wave analysis of GBP/USD for August 4. NIESR: UK inflation will rise to 3.9% by the end of 2021


The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument has become a little clearer and understandable recently. The instrument continues to build a new upward wave, which now looks very convincing and definitely does not fit into the wave counting of the previous downward trend section. Therefore, I believe that the downward section of the trend is completed. Moreover, it took a five-wave form. Thus, I expect the formation of at least three upward waves now. If this assumption is correct, then the increase in the quotes of the instrument will resume after the construction of a corrective downward wave, the beginning of which could have already been laid. However, at the moment, wave b does not look complete yet, so the decline may still resume. The targets of the entire upward section of the trend are located near the maximum of the wave e. Therefore, I expect the instrument to increase by another 200-250 points at least. I would also like to draw your attention to the new upward section of the trend which may turn out to be impulsive since its first wave already looks very impressive.

The Pound/Dollar instrument increased by another 40 basis points on Wednesday. The news background during the day was not very strong, but it should be recognized that the markets themselves were not eager to analyze the received economic information and trade in accordance with it. If there are practically no questions according to statistics from the UK, then the ADP report was poorly worked out and only the ISM index caused a really good movement by 50 points down. The index of business activity in the services sector of Britain in July increased from 57.8 to 59.6 points. Since both of these values are considered high, there was no increase in demand for the pound. The markets already seem to be fully focused on the meeting of the Bank of England, the results of which will be announced tomorrow.

I have already said that there is a high probability that there will be no changes in monetary policy. Thus, the main question is when will the British regulator complete the QE program? Given that the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) believes that inflation will rise to 3.9% by the end of the year, the Bank of England may give any signals about reducing the asset purchase program in the coming months. However, most analysts agree that such actions will be taken no earlier than the Fed. The latest meetings of the Bank of England showed that only one of the nine MPC members is ready to change the QE program. And he has already resigned from his position.

At this time, the wave pattern has become more understandable. The construction of the downward trend section is completed. I continue to count on the construction of a new upward trend section, so at this time it is possible to buy the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.4240 mark, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "up". The instrument could start building a corrective wave 2 or b, so the instrument may decline for some time.


The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form, its first wave has already acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes are growing.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -