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Analysis of GBP/USD. August 9. The fourth wave of the pandemic in the UK eases, but is not over


For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave counting has become a little clearer and clearer lately. A couple of days ago, one could say that the markets failed to make a successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level, but now the quotes have slipped slightly below this mark. However, the instrument still remains inside a new upward wave, and a slow decline is a construction of a corrective wave. Therefore, I believe that the downward trend is completed and has taken on a five-wave form. Thus, at this time, I expect at least three upward waves to form. If this assumption is correct, then the instrument will rise after the completion of the construction of the corrective downward wave b, which is being built in the past few days. The targets of the entire upward trend are located near the high of wave e. Therefore, I expect the instrument to rise by another 200-250 points. I also draw your attention to the fact that the new upward trend section may turn out to be impulsive, since its first wave already looks very impressive.

The pound/dollar instrument declined by only 55 basis points on Friday, which is relatively small for the level of reports that the markets received. I'm talking all about the same reports from the US - NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment - which turned out to be much better than market expectations. In addition, the value of payrolls from the previous month has been revised upward. Thus, the markets had ample motivation to buy the US currency and sell the pound/dollar instrument. That is why I say that the instrument declined very modestly. Based on this, the supposed wave b can complete its construction in the near future. Perhaps the instrument will be able to go down to the 1.3770-1.3820 area for greater persuasiveness. Meanwhile, in the UK, the coronavirus and its delta variant continue to infect Brits, despite the fact that more than 70% of adults have received both doses of the vaccine. Every day 20-30,000 new infections are recorded. Therefore, the Brits might be experiencing some problems with the increase, if not for the fact that a new wave of the pandemic has also begun in the United States in the last couple of weeks, and the number of fully vaccinated Americans is lower in percentage than Brits. So far, only 50% of the US population has received both doses of the vaccine. Thus, an American may also experience certain problems with the increase. There was no news background in the United States and Britain today. The same picture will be observed tomorrow. Thus, the magnitude of the instrument's fluctuation can be very low. Today it is only 25 basis points.

At this time, the wave pattern is more or less clear. The construction of the downward trend is completed. I continue to count on the construction of a new uptrend, so at this time I propose to consider buying the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located around 1.4240, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci. The instrument is now in the stage of building a correctional wave 2 or b, but the wave is weak and the instrument is unlikely to drop below 1.3770.


The upward part of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken on a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. The new part of the trend may acquire an impulsive form, its first wave has already acquired a rather extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of another strong increase in quotes are growing.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -