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Wave analysis of GBP/USD for July 28. Boris Johnson threatens to cancel Brexit agreement if Northern Ireland protocol is


The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument still raises many questions. The last descending wave is now identified as wave e and, if the current wave counting is correct, then at this time, the construction of the downward trend section is completed and the construction of a new upward trend section has begun. The downward trend ended near the lows of the previous downward section. Thus, I can assume that the targets of the new upward section are located near the peak of wave e. A new upward section of the trend may take a three-or five-wave structure, but it is unlikely to be impulsive. Most likely, a corrective trend will be built again. The main thing now is that the exit of quotes from the reached lows continues and clearly does not fit into the current wave counting of the last descending section of the trend. Thus, I would call the chances of increasing to the 40th figure and above to be quite high.

The Pound/Dollar instrument on Wednesday showed very constrained movements with an amplitude of about 15 basis points. This behavior of the markets, on the one hand, is quite expected, since the Fed will inform the markets about the results of the meeting this evening, so the reaction is likely to follow right during the events. However, in addition to the Fed meeting, there are other important topics for the pound. The last few stages of informal negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom on the Northern Ireland issue have ended without any progress. That is, the European Commission refuses on changing the Northern Ireland protocol from official negotiations, but at the same time, Ursula von der Leyen offers Boris Johnson a change in some points of the protocol that will suit both sides. The British Prime Minister, in turn, insists on a complete revision of the protocol and threatens to cancel the entire Brexit deal if the European Union does not meet him halfway.

According to Johnson, the Northern Ireland protocol has shown its complete inefficiency and requires revision. Germany, as one of the most influential members of the EU, made a statement in which it noted the complete unpredictability of London's actions, as well as the desire of the European Union to achieve from Britain only the exact execution of the Brexit agreement, which Britain itself agreed and signed. Thus, relations between the parties continue to deteriorate, and in the near future, London may unilaterally withdraw from the Brexit agreement. This will entail very serious consequences for the UK, but Boris Johnson is famous for his "radical steps". Let me remind you that earlier, he could easily block the work of the Parliament so that it would not interfere with the implementation of a" hard " Brexit. The pound does not have any problems about this yet, but the solution to this issue is not a matter of one or two weeks. We need to monitor the development of events.

At the moment, the wave pattern remains very complex. The construction of the downward trend section is presumably completed. I continue to count on the construction of a new upward trend section, so at this time it is possible to buy the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located above the 1.3872 mark, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "up".


The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. However, the wave counting still looks quite difficult, since there is no impulse movement now. At this time, the construction of a complicated downward trend section, which took the form a-b-c-d-e, is presumably completed.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -