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Wave analysis of GBP/USD for July 27. EU makes proposal on Northern Ireland Protocol


The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument still raises a lot of questions. The last descending wave is now identified as wave e, and if the current wave count is correct, then at this time, the construction of the descending trend section is completed, and the construction of a new upward trend section has begun. The downward section of the trend ended near the lows of the previous downward section. Thus, I assume that the targets of the new upward section are located near the peak of wave e. A new upward section of the trend may take a three-or five-wave structure, but it is unlikely to be impulsive. Most likely, a corrective trend will be built again. The main thing now is that the exit of quotes from the reached lows continues and clearly does not fit into the current wave counting of the last downward trend. Thus, I would call the chances of increasing to the 40th figure quite high.

The Pound/Dollar instrument first fell by 60 basis points on Tuesday, and then it rose by exactly the same amount. Thus, it remained within the framework of building an upward trend and an upward wave. The information background from the UK is still irrelevant to the economy. The two main topics of recent weeks – coronavirus and Brexit – are the only ones the markets continue to react to. However, all the recent movements do not seem to be working out these topics. Although, the epidemic in Britain has slowly begun to recede, which is good for the British economy and its prospects. While the negotiations between London and Brussels remain bleak. Let me remind you that London is not happy with the operation of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which is part of the Brexit agreement and requires the European Union to revise it.

The European Union does not agree, but from time to time it offers its own options for correcting all the points that London does not like, which are immediately rejected by the British side. So far, it seems that these negotiations will be as long and complex as the Brexit negotiations. At the moment, the situation is such that the Northern Ireland Protocol determines the movement of all categories of goods between Britain and Northern Ireland. Thus, it contains quite a large number of different points and agreements, most of which Britain wants to revise, and a certain part - to abandon. If Brussels refuses London's proposal, Boris Johnson is ready to violate some points, and the European Union, in turn, is ready to go to court.

At the moment, the wave pattern remains very complex. The construction of the downward trend section is presumably completed. I continue to count on the construction of a new upward trend section, so at this time it is possible to buy the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.3872 mark, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through the 1.3872 mark will indicate the readiness of the markets for new purchases of the instrument.


The upward trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. However, the wave counting still looks quite difficult, since there is no impulse movement now. At this time, it is assumed that the construction of a complicated downward trend section has been completed, which may have taken the form a-b-c-d-e.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -