Wave analysis of GBP/USD for July 15. UK proceeds with plans to lift quarantine restrictions


The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument began to differ from the Euro/Dollar. Presumably, the construction of a new upward set of waves has begun. In the last few days, the instrument has been rising more than falling. Three waves in this new upward trend segment are already visible, but wave c may turn out to be much longer than it looks now. Also, the instrument continues to move mainly in corrective structures, which does not make it easier to work with it. Nevertheless, we have to rely on the current wave counting. According to it, it is more likely that the instrument quotes will continue to rise with targets located near the high of wave e - the last wave of the previous upward trend. At the same time, a successful attempt to break through waves b or c will indicate the complication of the entire downward trend section, which began on June 1.

The Pound/Dollar instrument fell by 10 basis points on Thursday, although the amplitude of its movement during the day was up to 44 points. Thus, the markets were trading quite actively, but without exact direction. In addition to Jerome Powell's speech to the US Congress last night, several important reports were released in the UK in the morning, which the markets could not ignore. The unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in May, while average wages rose 7.3% with bonuses and 6.6% without bonuses. These two reports were directly opposed to each other. In addition, there was a report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits, which showed a decrease of 114,800. This is also a very strong value.

Thus, during the day, the demand for the pound grew, but the weak unemployment report held back its strengthening. Also, I cannot help but note that 42,000 new COVID cases were recorded in the UK yesterday. And the last figures are already starting to really scare. While some European countries are also seeing an increase in cases, the UK is, as usual, in first place among European countries. As early as next Monday, all quarantine restrictions may be lifted in the country, which could lead to an even greater surge in the epidemic. The position of the British government on this issue is completely unclear, because, even though most of the population has already received both doses of the vaccine, the virus and its new strains are again spreading throughout the country. In such a situation, it would be more logical to at least delay the lifting of the quarantine, otherwise, the country may again find itself in the hotbed of a pandemic.

At this time, the wave pattern has cleared up a bit, but remains very complex. The construction of the downward trend is supposedly completed. Thus, I recommend now to buy the instrument again with targets located above the 40th figure, for each MACD "up" signal. If the instrument makes a successful attempt to break through the 40th figure, then the upward set of waves will take on a more convincing form.


The upward part of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken on a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. However, the wave counting still looks rather complex, as there is no impulse movement now. At this time, the construction of the downward trend has also presumably been completed, so we can expect a new increase in quotes to the high of wave e.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com