Wave analysis for GBP/USD on June 4


For the pound/dollar pair, the wave marking has not changed in recent weeks. Yesterday's decline in quotes by 100 basis points could beneficially affect the wave picture, at least to pull the instrument out of the horizontal movement. However, today, it became clear that it is too early to rejoice. The British dollar has been in the side corridor for more than two weeks, strictly below the level of 0.0% on the Fibonacci, and so far remains there. Thus, after the proposed wave e completed its construction, the correction wave structures began, which are very difficult to determine for any particular wave of the higher scale. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level indirectly indicates the end of the last upward wave and the entire upward trend.

On the other hand, the wave marking of the upward section of the trend can still take a more complex form, and weak demand for the dollar only increases the chances of continuing to grow quotes in the end. A successful attempt to break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level will complicate the upward set of waves. Thus, as before, I recommend trading from the mark of 1.4240.

The pound/dollar pair also rose during the current day due to the same Nonfarm report in the US. The instrument added about 100 basis points today and returned to the positions from which the decline began yesterday. In the UK itself, there was little news. The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, did not provide any information. Just like Jerome Powell's speech today. Thus, in Britain, it was possible to pay attention only to the index of business activity in the construction sector for May, which rose from 61.6 to 64.2 points, providing additional support to the British dollar. Thus, after the last two trading days of this week, everything remains in place. The Briton is still not ready for a large-scale decline, which could be reflected in the form of a specific set of waves.

Consequently, next week, the markets will again try to hold the instrument through the level of 1.4240. It is even difficult to say what can stop the British from going up at this time. In America, the statistics are still better than in the UK. The rate of vaccination in both countries makes it equally likely to expect a greater acceleration in the pace of economic recovery. The speeches of the representatives of the Fed and the Bank of England do not yet give any specific information.

At this time, the wave pattern continues to be twofold. The Briton continues to move almost horizontally, which makes it difficult to work with it. At this time, it is still unclear whether the proposed wave e has completed its construction. Its internal wave structure looks ambiguous. I have already recommended selling the instrument with a protective order above 1.4240, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci. And if the level of 1.4240 breaks, buy it. This strategy is not changing at this time.


The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, takes a rather ambiguous form. As I said above, several variants of wave marking are possible at once. Unfortunately, different options offer different further developments. Therefore, it may be necessary to wait for the current wave markup to clear up a little.

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