Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on April 1, 2021

At yesterday's trading, the market closed the first month of spring, thus, it is quite natural to pay attention to the most senior timeframe to understand what to expect at the April trading.



First of all, let's pay attention to the very long upper shadow of the February candle, which did not bode well for the players to increase the rate. In the end, that's exactly what happened. When the bulls tried to continue the rise of the pound, the pair fell far short of the February highs shown at 1.4231. In March, the strong and significant psychological and technical level of 1.4000 became a stumbling block for reaching the previous maximum values. The bulls tested the strength of this mark several times, however, they failed to pass above 1.4015. Another characteristic point is the fact that the GBP/USD pair is still trading within the Ichimoku indicator cloud for the fourth month in a row. However, we must admit that the quote is much closer to the upper limit of the cloud, and this increases the chances of an exit in this direction. I consider the black 89 exponential moving average to be another obstacle on the way to the north. And here again, we have to remember that closing only one candle above or below any obstacle does not mean that it is overcome.

The March auction once again convinced us of this, because, unlike in February, it ended at 89 EMA. Another important point, in my opinion, is that in March, the British pound sterling suffered significantly fewer losses against the US dollar than the single European currency. I believe that the obvious bearish dynamics of the euro/pound cross-rate, significantly more successful rates of vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK compared to the European Union, and quite good macroeconomic statistics that came from the United Kingdom played an important role in this. Thus, the expectations of those experts who assumed that after the full completion of Brexit, the pound will start serious problems and it will collapse, at this stage of time, are not justified. As for the results of the analysis of the most senior timeframe of the GBP/USD currency pair, it is quite difficult to make an unambiguous conclusion about the further direction of the quote. In my subjective opinion, the probability of both growth and decline of the "Briton" remains. I believe that much of the price direction of this currency pair will depend on the position and demand for the US dollar, as well as the dynamics of EUR/GBP. If this pair continues to show a bearish trend, the pound paired with the dollar will look stronger than the single European currency.



Although the pair rose in yesterday's trading, the players on the rise are looking at some problems and quite serious ones. First, after reaching the highs at 1.3810 on the last day of March trading, the pair failed to finish the session above the important mark of 1.3800. Secondly, attempts to break through the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator failed, and this factor is also very important. Third, on the daily chart, the pair is trading within the Ichimoku cloud, which is a zone of uncertainty. I dare to assume that the alternate breakdown of the resistance at 1.3810, the Tenkan line, and the resistance at 1.3844, with the mandatory fixing above this mark, will breathe fresh energy into the bulls for the pound and they will continue to perform their functions, that is, move the quote up. In turn, the bears on the pair need to break through the support at 1.3700 and 1.3669. Note that right below the last level there is an 89 exponential moving average, which will certainly strengthen it. If we go to the trading recommendations for GBP/USD, then, in my personal opinion, there is still room for both successful purchases and profitable sales. The signal for opening short positions will be the appearance on H4 of a reversal model or candlestick analysis models in the price zone of 1.3805-1.3840. You can try risky purchases in the market right now, however, it is better to set a profit in the sales zone indicated above.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -