GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a fall to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3721). Closing the pair's rate below this level will allow traders to count on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the next level of 1.3625. A clear rebound from this level has not occurred at the moment. When paired with the British dollar, the dollar is also growing, but not as much as when paired with the euro. So, the Briton is kept afloat and mainly thanks to the high rate of vaccination of the population. Let me remind you that the UK authorities have placed an order for 400 million doses of vaccines for a population of 66 million. Moreover, they did it earlier than the European Union by about 3-4 months. Therefore, it is not surprising that pharmaceutical companies primarily seek to satisfy contracts with London, and not with Brussels. And it is also not surprising that the rate of vaccination in Britain is much higher than in Europe.
Also, the UK is not going to export vaccines to other countries. According to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the priority is to protect the British population from the virus. Also, according to Johnson, there is no surplus of vaccines in the country now, so there is nothing to export, but if a surplus of vaccines appears, the country's authorities promise to find the best distribution mechanism among all those who need them. Thus, Britain is still on the road to recovery. The sooner the entire adult population is vaccinated, the faster the economy will be fully operational. Quarantine in the country has already begun to weaken, the first dose of the vaccine has already been received by more than 50% of the population. Thus, all these factors allow the British dollar not to fall following the example of the European currency.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a fall to the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3701). The rebound of quotes from this level will allow us to expect a new reversal in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the downward trend line, which still characterizes the current mood of traders as "bearish". The consolidation of the pair's rate under the level of 127.2% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3481).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes closed under the ascending trend line. Thus, in the long term, the "bullish" mood of traders has changed to "bearish". This is an important point for the prospects of the British currency.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no major reports or events in the UK and US on Tuesday. The information background was practically absent yesterday.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - change in GDP (09:00 UTC).
US - change in the number of employees from ADP (15:15 UTC).
On Wednesday, in the UK and America, the calendars of economic events each contain one fairly important report. I believe that today the information background will have an impact on traders.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on March 23 for the British pound showed moderate changes in the mood of major players. The category of traders "Non-commercial" again got rid of long contracts, closing 3,249 of them, and also increased short contracts, opening 4,405 of them. Thus, the mood of speculators has again become much more "bearish". However, this effect is achieved mainly by reducing the number of long contracts. In general, in recent months, the total number of short-contracts focused on the hands of speculators has not changed - 30-40 thousand. Thus, the British dollar can continue to fall, and the trend line on the 4-hour chart will help determine the moment when it will end.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It was recommended to buy the British dollar in the event of a rebound from the level of 76.4% (1.3721) on the hourly chart. At the moment, there is no clear rebound. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling at the close of quotes under the level of 127.2% (1.3701) on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.3625 and 1.3560.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to provide current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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