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Was the dollar's growth fake or is USD gathering strength for a sharp rise?


Risk appetite is weak, the news does not bring new drivers for directional movement in world markets, investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude. Focus is on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, who will comment on the prospects for changing the quantitative easing program. President-elect Joseph Biden announces an anti-crisis package. It should be worth $2 trillion.

The emergence of details on anti-crisis measures may increase volatility in the markets, since the degree of uncertainty in this topic is still high. Optimism will intensify, but given that it is already extremely high, a backlash from investors is not excluded. Fixation of positions is possible. The likelihood of such a scenario will increase if market players find the new president's plan unconvincing.

Overall, the expected financial support from the government is a positive factor for the US economy. However, investors fear that the implementation of this plan could lead to higher inflation, which in the long term will trigger an earlier than expected tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.

The dollar grew on Thursday against a basket of competitors. The rate has been in the upper border of the descending channel for the last four months. This time, in contrast to the beginning of the week, the recovery of the dollar index was observed along with an increase in risk appetite.

Yields on 10-year government bonds climbed to 1.11% at the beginning of the day. However, they still remain below the week's high - 1.18%.

The rise in the securities market and the decline in bond prices are slightly at odds with the dollar's dynamics. In such cases, the pressure on the US currency often increases. This means that investors need to decide which instrument's dynamics they will perceive as an indicator of a stable trend.

Updating the US index's weekly high could be a hint of the end of the short-term trend on the financial markets. With this scenario development, a deeper correction is possible, and a return to growth is not excluded. The closest targets for the dollar index would be 91.2 and 92.0. However, the greenback strengthened the downward dynamics against its main competitors during the US session.


For the main pair on the forex market, the 1.207 level is a similar target for a pullback. The EUR/USD pair may leave the area below the 20th figure. As soon as the euro appears at the 1.20-1.19 level, it will give investors a reason to reconsider their extremely negative attitude towards the dollar. But this is unlikely to happen, just look at the dynamics of individual currencies, for example, the pound.

The GBP/USD pair remains close to local highs. Of course, there is support from the Bank of England, which made it clear that it is not yet ready to resort to negative rates. A more important role is played by the attitude to risk. If the pound manages to maintain its positions near recent peaks, then nothing threatens risk appetite.

The pound grew on Thursday and is preparing to test the resistance of 1.37. The news background is on its side.


The pound is under pressure due to the situation with the coronavirus in the UK. However, news from the US, contributing to the depreciation of the dollar, neutralizes this negative. Thus, buyers' attack on the next round mark of 1.38 is not excluded.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -