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EUR/USD. The battle for the US presidential seat 2020. Part one.


The topic of the presidential election remains the number one topic in the United States. We return to this topic again and again, which is of course extremely important for the US dollar, which has been falling against its main competitors in recent months. Thus, participants in the foreign exchange market are not just trying to understand who will become the new President of the United States. They are trying to understand what the country's foreign and domestic policy will be over the next four years. The United States, like many other countries in the world, is constantly in conflict mode with other countries. This is normal, this is how the world works. There are always those who are dissatisfied with other people's politicians and the way they conduct international affairs. However, it was under Trump that the trade war between the world's two largest economies began, which left its mark on global GDP. Thus, clarity is already required on this issue. If Trump remains President, the pressure on China will obviously continue, and even increase. Trump blames China not only for the "release of the coronavirus", but also for the record decline in the American economy, which was caused by the epidemic and "lockdown". Thus, there is no reason to expect that Trump will suddenly change his attitude to China to the opposite. China can respond with equivalent measures, sanctions and duties. Thus, under President Trump, it is almost certain that the trade war will continue, and may even develop into a full-fledged "cold war". In principle, Trump does not hide that he is going to continue to talk to China from a position of strength and pressure. But do the Americans need this confrontation with China? As we have said many times, most ordinary people, no matter what nationality, live a simple life and are not interested in politics. Such people are more interested in their well-being, the well-being of their families and the stable situation in the country. These people want to have a job, get paid, and have a weekend vacation, not "fight with China". So this moment could very much affect the number of Trump voters in November.

The second very important point is "coronavirus". The whole world has already realized that the "coronavirus" is not a runny nose and it needs to be fought. And the effectiveness of the measures taken by the government of any country directly depends on how many people will be infected and how many will die from the pandemic. Trump did not pay due attention to the "coronavirus" and now the States are in the first place in the world in terms of the number of cases and "fatal" outcomes. Despite the fact that in recent weeks, the spread of the COVID-2019 virus has slowed slightly in the United States, 40-50 thousand new cases of infection are still recorded every day. It is widely believed that the current government has failed to cope with the epidemic, as there are a huge number of examples when a country has managed to localize the virus with minimal losses (for example, the Scandinavian countries, Thailand, South Korea). In the States, the losses are maximum. Who is to blame? Trump and his administration. Thus, Biden confidently declares that the fight against the "coronavirus" will become almost the main goal of his government. Thus, Americans have a choice: believe Trump, who has already failed the fight against the pandemic or believe Biden, who has not yet managed to do anything like this. As a rule, if the government does not cope with its duties, it is changed. So we continue to believe that Trump will lose the election.

The third global problem faced by the United States in 2020 is mass riots, protests and rallies due to two cases of racial discrimination already. Twice within a few months, American police officers used weapons against black men in cases where it was absolutely not necessary. In the first case, George Floyd was killed by excessive police brutality during the arrest, although he did not offer any resistance. In the second case, the police opened fire in front of the young children of the victim, who eventually survived, but remained paralyzed. After the first incident, the entire country was engulfed by the mass movement "Black Lives Matter". People went out on the street, rallied, protested and demanded to take action against the police. The police, by the way, often supported the protesters themselves. The second case revived the desire of Americans to rally. And all this at the time of the epidemic in the country that was most affected by this very epidemic. Trump, who at that time already faced so many problems that significantly lowered his political ratings and chances of re-election, began to get nervous and freaked out. Instead of giving the protesters free rein (protests and rallies are not prohibited by American laws), he began trying to disperse people, and even tried to resort to the help of the American army. A little later, in some cities, the force of special units was still used. Naturally, Americans do not like this state of affairs, and Democrats continue to add fuel to the fire, saying that Trump destroyed democracy in the country.

And the worst thing for Trump is that his last trump card – the economy – has been destroyed. It is the US economy that lost the largest number of percent of GDP in the second quarter of 2020. Unemployment rose above 10%, and the Fed and the US Congress had to urgently inject trillions of dollars into the economy, which will now hang as government debt. Trump now can't even claim that the economy has flourished or reached a new level under him. Because under him, the economy collapsed to the maximum value for the last 100 years. So it turns out that Trump has no trumps left before the election. However, Trump has never succumbed to difficulties and has never shied away from not quite honest methods and ways to achieve his own goals. This is the main concern of experts. Now, a lot of people in the US believe that the 2020 election will be the most difficult in the country's history, and Trump will try to falsify them or simply refuse to recognize their results.


Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair:

The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair shows that the price continues to trade in the side channel of $1.17-$1.19, occasionally making attempts to exit it. Unsuccessful. Thus, traders now have a flat at their disposal, and the Ichimoku indicator behaves very badly during a flat and generates a lot of false signals. Thus, you can now trade between the upper and lower borders of the side channel or wait for the price to leave it.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -