The US dollar remains generally under pressure in the wake of two main factors. On the one hand, these are the problems of the impeachment of D. Trump by the democrats, and although few people believe in his success, he remains as a potential negativity in the minds of investors. On the other hand, oddly enough, it is still the result of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy.
Regarding the prospects for impeachment of Trump, we note that its effect on the dollar is happening through the dynamics of the yield of US government bonds of the US Treasury. They continue to show slurred movement. But the consequences of the December meeting of the regulator really turned out to be more important than anticipated.
At the same time, the Fed made it clear in the face of its leader J. Powell that it was stopping the rate cuts, which in theory should, on the contrary, stimulate the growth of the dollar, but this led to the opposite, which is to an increase in demand for risk and, as a result, to an increase in the purchase of shares of companies and other assets. As the consequences of the 2008-09 crisis showed, it is the dollar that remains an outsider in this situation, and it does not matter what kind of economic statistics come out, positive or not. In addition, the epic with the US-Chinese trade war is not over yet, which leads to a weakening dollar, but so far, only limited.
Today, investors will focus on the publication of US GDP data for the third quarter. It is assumed that it will maintain a growth rate of 2.1%, while the deflator will add up to 1.6% against 1.7%. We believe that such figures can give a positive impulse to demand for shares of American companies, as well as support the dollar, if they do not turn out worse, together with the values of the basic price index for personal consumption (RFE), which should also maintain a growth rate of 1.6%.
Another important supporting factor may be the data of the index of expectations and consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan for the month of December. It is assumed that the indicators will rise respectively to 89.7 points and 99.2 points, and their November values will be revised upward.
In general, we do not expect anything considering the situation in the currency exchange market, Moreover, after a surge in activity in the wake of the publication of statistics, its continuation is noticeable until the end of this year.
Forecast of the day:
EUR/USD remains under pressure. Strong US economic statistics may push the pair below 1.1110. Against this background, it can decline to 1.1050.
Gold quotes continue to balance, "not knowing" where to move. But today, they may be under pressure if economic data from America does not disappoint. Thus, we expect a limited decline to 1465.70.
