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Expert In



GBP/USD. May 2. The trading system "Regression Channels". Mark Carney's speech – the main event of the day

4-hour timeframe


Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 81.5425

In the first half of the last day, the British pound showed steady growth, although the index of business activity in the UK manufacturing sector declined in April from 55.1 to 53.1. Only after the start of the publication of American macroeconomic statistics (which was also ambiguous), traders began to reduce long positions for the pair, which led first to a rollback and then to a correction. However, if the EUR/USD pair fell to the moving average, the GBP/USD pair slightly rolled back from its highs and retains high chances for the resumption of the upward movement. Today, the UK will first release the index of business activity in the construction sector, and then the results of the meeting of the Bank of England will be known. As in the case of the Fed, no changes in monetary policy are expected, respectively, all attention will be focused on the speech of Mark Carney. It is expected that the head of the Central Bank will touch upon the topic of Brexit once again and will be inclined to designate the risks associated with the uncertainty regarding Brexit, the lack of a specific solution on this issue and with a possible "hard" scenario of leaving the EU. We believe that there will be nothing optimistic about Carney's speech, which means that the US dollar can continue strengthening after lunch. This is also indicated by the Heiken Ashi indicator. Prior to its turn upward, a downward movement remains preferable.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3031

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2970

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3062

R2 - 1.3092

R3 - 1.3123

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD began to be adjusted. Thus, it is now recommended to consider buy orders with targets at 1.3062 and 1.3092, but after the completion of the correction round. The results of the Bank of England meeting and Mark Carney's speech can have a strong impact on the movement of the pair.

Sell positions should be considered after the consolidation of the pair below the moving average with the first target at 1.2970 and 1.2939. Today, the trend for the instrument may also change.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -