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What to expect from the euro: will it grow to $1.16 or decrease to $1.05?

Despite the fact that the EUR / USD pair remains close to multi-month lows, experts of Nordea Bank believe that the current ratio of potential income and risk is quite attractive in opening long positions.

The reason for Nordea's upbeat sentiment on the euro was a message from the Middle Kingdom regarding the news in March where lending in the country has sharply jumped amid the growth of the M2 unit, which reached a 13-month high and amounted to 188.94 trillion yuan.


"At some point, credit expansion may bring bitter rewards, but in the near future it implies a revival of the economy," representatives of the financial institute said.

According to experts, there is a steady correlation between financial conditions in Asia and the rate of the euro against the US dollar.

They believe that the accelerated development of the Chinese economy will lead to a surge in activity in other regions, which will contribute to reducing the difference in GDP growth in the United States and the rest of the world, which will be a positive moment for the euro.

Nordea currency strategists recommend buying the EUR / USD pair with a target of 1.1650 and a stop at 1.1187.

Meanwhile, analysts at Saxo Bank believe that Europe is in a losing fork in anticipation of the outcome of the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

"The more friendly the agreement, the higher the likelihood that China will transfer part of the demand for imports from the Old World to America. However, no matter what the deal is - friendly or not - there are risks of de-globalization and a slowdown in global GDP, which is a double problem for the EU, the world's largest economic bloc with a trade surplus" noted by Saxo Bank foreign exchange strategies.

"If the global economy moves from slowing down to further deterioration, then Germany will surely be in the midst of a recession in the EU. The backlog of the country will again expose the Franco-German "front" and also lead to the fact that the debt problem from the dichotomy: "Germany - PIIGS countries" or "austerity - freedom of spending" will grow into a common European problem, "they added.

"With regard to the ECB, the regulator is in complete confusion in terms of new initiatives after a decade of zero interest rate policy and the lack of growth, which could boast of its result," the authorities said.

They admit that the EUR/USD pair could sink to the level of 1.05 in the second quarter.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -