May will leave in exchange for support of her Brexit proposal

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The British Parliament, taking control of the Brexit process, hopes to find a way out of the impasse. On Wednesday, lawmakers will explore alternatives to the prime mnister's project through a series of so-called "demonstrative" votes. The Theresa May Agreement is still a promising option. In addition, there were rumors that she would leave her position as prime minister in exchange for support of her Brexit proposal.

Voting will begin at 19:00, the results are expected by 21:00 London time. It is possible that the ministers will need more time to choose an option they prefer. In this case, the meeting will continue on Monday. Voting may not provide the result that MPs are counting on, but the fact that they have united and challenged the government is already a huge breakthrough.

Meanwhile, the pound, which won back losses against the background of traders' belief in a positive outcome of Brexit, is waiting for the results of a new vote.

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Here is what leading strategists wrote:

Credit Agricole CIB

"Despite the fact that political uncertainty is likely to continue, our long-term view remains constructive - the pound will rise to $1.39 by September."

Newton Asset Management

"There is a possibility that MPs will not come to any of the final options, which will further confuse the situation."

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European Council President Donald Tusk, who spoke on Wednesday at the European Parliament's plenary session in Strasbourg, said that the British should retain the right to revise Brexit plans and be given the time to do so, that is, agree to a lengthy delay. This means that the UK will participate in European elections.

Results that may follow a series of votes:

  • Theresa May's proposal that already failed twice will unlikely be passed. Nevertheless, some who oppose the prime minister's unpopular deal and supporters of the "hard" scenario, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, said that they could change their mind and vote in favor. In this scenario, the likelihood of a disorderly Brexit will decrease, which contributes to the sterling's immediate strengthening against both the dollar and the euro.
  • Although the "hard" Brexit was eliminated twice, legally it remains as the "default" scenario if no agreement is reached by April 12.
  • The UK remains in the customs union. This will allow the country to conduct free trade, while a single market will be closed. It may also mean that Britain will have to maintain some form of freedom of movement of citizens throughout the eurozone.
  • One of the versions of Theresa May's proposal is the Malthouse deal. Here, the Irish "backstop" is replaced by "technical solutions", which are currently not defined.
  • The idea of a second referendum remains.
  • The simplest option is to abolish Article 50. It is unlikely for it to receive a greater support in the House of Commons. Deputies fear that in this way they will ignore the will of the British, expressed in a referendum in 2016.
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