EUR / USD. February 4th. Results of the day. There are no grounds for a Euro currency growth above 1.1500

4-hour timeframe


The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 54p - 39p - 96p - 78p - 54p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 64p (77p).

As we expected, the first trading day of the week remains for the US currency. Strong macroeconomic statistics, published on Friday, in particular, NonFarm Payrolls and the report on wages, caused a very weak reaction at the end of last week. The Europeans were completely deprived of the opportunity to "work out" this news. Thus, today's strengthening of the American currency with a complete lull in the fundamental plan is expected. From the news of today, absolutely nothing to note. The secondary reports from the eurozone had no effect on the movement of the pair. We also note that the volatility of the instrument remains very weak. Friday, for example, with its package of important news from the States ended with a total amplitude of just 54 points. And today, no more. All this is explained, first of all, by the general uncertainty in the mood of traders in recent months. The Fed has changed its rhetoric, so the dollar is no longer buying anything and everything under any conditions. In principle, Trump got his own from Powell, this year there may be no rate increase. And this means that the main factor that pushed the dollar up is leveled. However, there are no grounds for strengthening the euro currency above the level of 1.1500. The ECB does not even think about any tightening of monetary policy, inflation in the alliance is slowing down, according to Brexit there is still no final decision, and we have not seen strong macroeconomic statistics in the EU for a long time. Plus, concerns remain about the trade war with the States.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues to move weakly down. Thus, short positions in small lots with a view to 1.1892 are relevant now, since there is no "dead cross" yet. In general, we expect a steady decline in the pair to the area of 1.1290.

Buy positions can be considered after the price is fixed above the critical line with the target of 1.1495. However, this will now require fundamental reasons.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Redline and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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